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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest upset.

However the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and recent strugglers improving together. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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