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Well. From one perspective, Australia's protracted bid to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to many people who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a conference obstructed from the top if his administration led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.