Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."