🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market User Made $436K from Wagers Predicting Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. An individual profited close to $500,000 from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was officially announced, sparking debate about the possibility of profiting from inside knowledge of American actions. Sudden Shift in Wagers Wagers on Polymarket, an online prediction market, that the leader would be no longer in control by the end of January rose in the time leading up to Donald Trump stated on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody. One account, which registered on the site recently and took four positions, all on the Venezuelan situation, profited a total of $436K from a starting bet of $32.5K. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Market Signals Before News Break Platform data shows that participants assessed the probability of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the afternoon of the prior Friday. However the market's assessment had increased to 11% by late Friday night and surged in the early hours of Saturday, indicating a sudden change in market sentiment immediately prior to the public announcement was made. "This specific wager has all the hallmarks of a bet based on non-public details," said an industry expert. Several of other platform users also profited significant sums from similar wagers. Legal Questions Grows Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A bill introduced on the start of the week seeks to ban federal workers from making trades on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a wager. The Prediction Market Landscape Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in the past few years, with users able to wager on everything from sports outcomes to political events. This sector encountered regulatory challenges under the previous administration. However it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Trading on insider information is illegal in the traditional financial markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the event betting industry. An official representative for Kalshi said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."